Growth in prison populations projected to cost $27.5 billion over five years
The latest Pew project report—“Public Safety, Public Spending: Forecasting America’s Prison Population 2007-2011”—projects that by 2011, America will have more than 1.7 million men and women in prison, an increase of more than 192,000 from 2006. Over the next five years, that increase could cost taxpayers as much as $27.5 billion beyond what they currently spend on prisons.
According to the report, the projected increase could cost as much as $15 billion in new operating costs and $12.5 billion in new construction costs by 2011.
“Without policy changes by the states, the nation’s incarceration rate will reach 562 per 100,000, or one of every 178 Americans,” The Pew public safety report asserts. “If you put them all together in one place, the incarcerated population in just five years will outnumber the residents of Atlanta, Baltimore and Denver combined.”
Federal data, likewise, shows a population boom in the number incarcerated. New Census Bureau estimates peg the population living in adult correctional facilities at 2.1 million in 2006—nearly double the 1990 population of 1.1 million. In 2000, the adult correctional population was nearly 2 million. (Note: The Census data, from the latest American Community Survey, covers prisons as well as other adult correctional facilities.)
California, Texas have highest inmate populations
Additional Census Bureau data, from American Factfinder, shows that these states have the highest inmate populations:
California—248,516 (inmates)
Texas—244,363
Florida—139,148
New York—108,088
Georgia—81,773
Changes in state policies are key factors that are driving expected increases in prison populations. These policy changes, as noted in the project report, include “mandatory minimum prison sentences, reduced parole grant rates and high recidivism rates, especially among people on parole and probation who are sent to prison for breaking the rules of their release.”
“There is more agreement across the political spectrum on criminal justice policy than there has been in a quarter century,” said Adam Gelb, project director of the Public Safety Performance Project. “State policymakers we’ve spoken with want adequate prison space to house violent and serious offenders without breaking the bank by building thousands of new prison beds. And they want to do more than warehouse people. They want to prevent crime by reducing recidivism.
“Innovative governors and legislators across the country are exploring policies, programs and technologies they believe will save their states money and reduce recidivism. They are being joined in this pursuit by judges, prosecutors and defense attorneys, corrections and law enforcement officials, faith-based organizations and community advocates, and others searching for cost-effective solutions backed by credible research and a track record of success.”
The Public Safety Performance Project helps select states diagnose the factors driving prison growth and identify options for reform that draw on research, promising approaches and best practices in other states. The project initially is working in eight states: Alabama, Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, Kansas, Nebraska, Rhode Island and Texas.
For more information, visit http://www.pewpublicsafety.org/.
