Energy, Education, Economy: Young Voter’s Top Concerns In ’06
Leading up to the 2006 elections, young voters are concerned about the same issues as older Americans–jobs and the economy, education, and energy–and respond most favorably to candidates who frame issues in ways relevant to young adults, according to a poll released by The George Washington University’s Young Voter Strategies (YVS).
The poll, the first to catalogue young adults’ attitudes in the 2006 election cycle, also found that nearly three-quarters of 18-30 year olds intend to vote in November 2006.
Young Voter Strategies, a project at The George Washington University with support from The Pew Charitable Trusts, commissioned the poll in response to growing interest in the youth bloc from campaigns and elected officials on both sides of the aisle. The bi-partisan polling team of Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners and Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group conducted the Young Voter Battleground Poll.
“We saw in 2004 that young people are paying attention and will vote if asked,” said Goeas. “After a huge jump in youth turnout in 2004, we wanted to know more about how to reach these voters.”
“Our poll found that young voters are ready to make their voices heard in the 2006 elections,” said Lake. “This is a new, more active generation of young voters and politicians ought to pay attention to them.”
The poll surveyed five hundred 18-30 year olds from April 27- May 1, 2006. Key findings include:
— 73% say it is likely that they will vote in November 2006.
— While young people are evenly divided when it comes to ideology–34% identify as Conservative, 33% as Liberal, and 23% as Moderate-more young voters say they are Democrat than Republican (39% to 31%). Nearly 20% identify as Independent.
— 63% feel the country is on the wrong track and 29% feel it is on the right track, similar to the overall electorate (60%/31%, according to the March 2006 Goeas-Lake Battleground Poll).
— Gas prices (19%), education (15%), jobs & the economy (12%), and Iraq (10%) were cited as top issues in need of Congressional action.
— Young adults think Democrats would best deal with issues of college affordability (61%/20%) and energy (55%/23%), and feel Republicans deal best with homeland security (51%/32%). Respondents rated both parties equally on the issue of immigration (39% R, 38% D).
Young adults are an increasingly active and in-demand voting bloc. While historically less likely to vote than older Americans, in 2004 turnout among 18-24 year olds voters increased an 11 percentage points over 2000 levels (US. Census), compared to a 4 point increase among all voters. Further, in 2005 youth turnout grew 15% and 19% in student precincts in Virginia and New Jersey, even while turnout among all ages dropped. Experts contend that massive youth-targeted outreach in 2004 is the primary reason why youth turnout jumped.
“If you ask them, they will vote,” said Heather Smith, Director of Young Voter Strategies. “Campaigns have a huge opportunity to tap into the youth vote in 2006 and now they have top-notch research showing how to best mobilize young voters.”
YVS today also discussed new research from two young voter mobilization field studies conducted during the Virginia 2005 gubernatorial elections.
— YVS commissioned direct mail expert Hal Malchow of MSHC Direct to test the impact of non-partisan direct mail and automated calls on young voter turnout. Malchow’s analysis showed that these tactics did not have a significant impact on turnout.
— Tony Feather of Feather Larson & Synhorst DCI conducted a partisan direct mail and auto-call experiment to determine if partisan outreach has a different impact than non-partisan outreach.
YVS also discussed youth outreach tactics that do increase turnout. Six years of research and a recent analysis show that peer outreach-canvassing and live phone calls-is most effective in turning out young voters.
— A 2005 analysis by the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) found that turnout among young voters in Virginia increased by 15.1% over 2001 levels in 13 student-dense precincts targeted by non- partisan door-to-door outreach and live phone calls-even while turnout statewide dropped.
— Previous studies by Professor Donald Green of Yale University have shown an 8-10 percentage point turnout increase from door-to-door canvassing and a 5 point increase from live phone calls.
In addition to work discussed today, Young Voter Strategies is coordinating a national nonpartisan project to register 350,000 18-29 year old voters using innovative and replicable methods of voter outreach. Each project will be tracked and analyzed by an academic researcher; after the 2006 elections, Young Voter Strategies and the researchers will create a “Young Voter Toolkit” that outlines the nuts and bolts of involving young voters in elections.
