EXTRA, EXTRA/Predicting the predictable surprise
Many supposedly surprise disasters in the public and private sectors should be predicted by leaders based on available information, according to negotiation experts Max Bazerman and Michael Watkins. In their book “Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming and How to Prevent Them,” Bazerman and Watkins show how disasters put people at risk and describe how leaders can understand, anticipate and prevent them before disasters occur. Using the events of September 11th and Enron as examples, the authors explain the cognitive, organizational and political biases that make predictable surprises so common and outline six danger signals to look for. The $27.50 hardcover book is available from the Harvard Business School Press by calling (617) 783-7410 or by visiting www.harvardbusinessonline.org.