INSIDE WASHINGTON/NACo says counties key to election

Hoping to flex its political muscle in next month’s presidential election, the National Association of Counties is touting a voter analysis it claims shows that the key to winning the White House is at the county level. The survey zeroes in on the nation’s 257 most populous counties and calculates that President Clinton captured 51 percent of the total vote from those counties when he defeated Bob Dole in 1996.

During a presidential campaign, candidates and the news media traditionally focus their attention on swing states. NACo hopes its new voter analysis will provide the organization with more political clout by shifting attention to counties.

“The political and economic power in this country is really in regions rather than along state lines,” says NACo Executive Director Larry Naake. “This is the point we want to make: Presidential candidates need to look at regions rather than swing states.” (Neither candidate appeared in person at NACo’s annual meeting in July, although Gore spoke via teleconference.)

To reinforce their argument, NACo and its members point out that the 257 counties that gave Clinton a majority in 1996 represent only 8 percent of the nation’s 3,067 counties. “Our point is that maybe the [presidential candidates] should be meeting with county and regional leaders in these major regional areas rather than just [meeting with] governors and mayors,” Naake says.

NACo acknowledges the political reality that urban areas traditionally lean Democratic, and rural areas support Republicans, but the organization has carved out a middle ground it says is crucial to winning elections. NACo argues that, if a candidate devises a strategy to win over the suburban voter, and, at the same time, reaches out into urban and rural areas, that candidate has a good chance of winning.

Analyzing the 1996 election on a state- by-state basis, NACo found that 83 percent of the vote in California, which has 53 electoral votes, came from urban and suburban counties. Across the country in New Jersey, which has 15 electoral votes, 82 percent of the vote came from urban and suburban counties.

Naake points out that some states with large electoral vote counts also have a strong county government infrastructure. Westchester County (N.Y.) Legislator Katherine Carsky predicts the presidential candidate who is able to win the support of voters in New York City’s suburbs will scoop up the Empire State’s 33 electoral votes. “These are the hearts and minds the candidates are going to have to win,” she says. “We are where the buck is going to stop in the end.”

According to county leaders, presidential candidates hoping to win the support of those crucial suburban county voters need to address counties’ concerns and needs. However, the issues about which NACo and its members are concerned are as diverse as the counties they represent. For example, counties are united in overturning the Internet tax moratorium, and they generally agree on the issues of universal health insurance and crime. But they also argue that providing flexibility (and steering clear of over-arching federal programs) is most helpful to them.

“What is good for counties in New Hampshire and South Dakota is not necessarily good for Los Angeles County,” says L.A. County Supervisor Don Knabe, who serves on NACo’s Large Urban County Caucus. Knabe also suggests it would be wise for the presidential candidates to dedicate part of their campaign schedule to visiting county facilities such as health care clinics and social services offices. “We [need to] get them in the trenches,” Knabe says.